Brexit Uncertainty in Northern Ireland: What Does the Future Hold?

Cameron Boyle submitted this article to UNN for publication.

With the Brexit deadline extended once more, the uncertainty surrounding our departure from the EU grows deeper. This uncertainty is felt particularly acutely in Northern Ireland, with its 310-mile border forming the UK’s only land frontier with the bloc. With the Irish backstop now discarded, the absence of a solution could potentially bring to the surface some of the most heated tensions to arise from Brexit negotiations. The backstop was designed to ensure that the border remained invisible and frictionless and that free movement on the island of Ireland continued. It is possible that the lack of a suitable replacement may breathe life into significant socio-political frictions for those on either side of the border. 

The Irish backstop was part of a draft agreement organised between the EU and Theresa May’s government. It was created to ensure that, regardless of Brexit, no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would be formed. Whilst the notion was initially supported, Parliament have recently lost enthusiasm for it; harbouring concerns that it would lead to different regulations for Northern Ireland compared with the rest of the UK. The agreement could also mean that that the UK would be unable to leave the backstop without EU approval. MPs have suggested this would indefinitely hold the UK closely aligned with the EU; which would contradict the key concept of Brexit. 

But the backstop is not something to be discarded lightly. If it is dismissed, a hard border may form between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This would spell the end of free movement between the two countries. As a consequence, many issues would surely arise, such as border control; racial profiling; new tariffs; and with the historical background between Ireland and the UK, violence too could play its part. Indeed, the Irish border was singled out by both the UK and the EU for a backstop because of its importance to the peace process. Rejecting the backstop would undermine the principle of North-South cooperation as set out in the Good Friday Agreement.

In 1998, the Good Friday Agreement was introduced. One of the agreement’s three main points was to create an infrastructure for “North-South co-operation” between the Irish government and the newly-created Northern Irish Assembly. According to the Institute for Government, this cross-border cooperation led to the “‘normalisation’ of relations between Protestant and Catholic communities within Northern Ireland and across the border.” Opening the border, which had previously been manned by British soldiers, was key part of this ‘normalisation’ and cooperation. The Irish government has said the open border is “the most tangible symbol of the Peace Process”.  Furthermore, the GFA allows for those in Northern Ireland to have Irish or British citizenship. Given the highly volatile history between Britain and Ireland, it is easy to understand the negative implications that a closed border would have. 

One group to be immediately affected by an absence of a backstop would be the reported 30,000 ‘cross-border’ workers who live and work on different sides of the Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland border. These workers freely and legally cross the border every day to earn their livelihoods; a harder border would make this process significantly more complicated. Unsurprisingly, a recent study from Queen’s University Belfast revealed there to be ‘substantial and intense opposition to possible North-South border checks’. The report found that around 60 percent of people surveyed would support peaceful protests against checks on the border, and a further five percent of the population ‘fairly or very supportive of vandalising border technology’. 

Although the government has stated its intentions to avoid a hard border, they may still introduce UK immigration checks at all Irish ports and airports. However, these kinds of procedures can often lead to racial profiling. And with on-the-spot immigration checks opening the door for discrimination, a resulting increase in administrative punishment for individuals, who cannot convince immigration officers of their status, could lead to the unwarranted criminalisation of BAME communities. And in the current political climate, more tensions between social groups within the UK and Ireland is something to be avoided at all costs. 

As quoted in RT, journalist and political activist Eamon McCann claimed that Northern Ireland currently has “no functioning political system,” and “if there is a vacuum, something will fill it.” He suggested that the collapse of the political institutions has “created an anger” among people. Adding, “they believe they are being treated badly by society, by the police, by officialdom, by bureaucracy, so they are alienated from society, so to speak.” In the same article, political analyst and journalist John Wight stated that politicians who favour the hardest possible Brexit are “risking the peace” in Northern Ireland. In this context, it is easy to predict an increase in violence in Northern Ireland that could spread across borders. 

To add to the social unrest, the frequent trading that occurs across the border could also be jeopardized if the backstop is ignored. As things stand, there are no checks or tariffs on goods moving either way between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. In 2016, trade across the border was consequently worth £4 billion. But as part of Brexit, the UK intends to leave both the single market and customs union, and without the backstop new border regulations such as tariffs will be introduced. This will severely handicap the frequent trading that goes on across these borders. To put it in context, about 80 percent of the goods Ireland exports are currently transported to or through the UK; Ireland source, from the UK mainland, 55 percent of its fuel imports and 41 percent of its food imports; and the European Parliament state that 21 percent of Northern Ireland’s total exports got to the Republic. It is plain to see that all these economies are firmly interwoven with one another; tariff-free relationships being a key component to such trading. 

And the situation in simple: the backstop needs a suitable alternative. There is rising tension in both the UK and Ireland. Without an appropriate post-Brexit arrangement, issues such as racial profiling, border tensions, community unrest, and a damaged economy could all take that tension to boiling point. It is crucial that the British government agree to implement the Irish backstop, or indeed a solution that maintains the current setup. 

Hal Fish is a content writer for the Immigration Advice Service, and organisation of immigration solicitors that help undocumented migrants to regulate their status.