China to overtake U.S.A as world’s biggest economy by 2028, report claims

The annual report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has stated that China will become the world’s major economic force by 2028. The report states that whilst China and the US have vied for economic superiority for some time, the pandemic has “tipped the rivalry in China’s favour”.

CEBR has predicted that this leapfrogging would occur. However, this new report predicts that China is set to overtake the US to become the world’s biggest economy five years earlier than previously predicted, and this is in part to its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. 

The report says: “For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China. The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China’s favour”.

During the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP slumped to its worst performance for decades. However, in July, the country reported a second-quarter growth of 3.2% compared to Q2 in 2019. The CEBR now predicts that China’s expected to average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021 to 2025 before a slow down to 4.5% a year from 2026 to 2030.

The US economy is expected to rebound strongly in 2021. However, its growth is then forecasted to slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024 before falling again to 1.6% after that. Japan is expected to remain in third place in dollar terms but is likely to be overtaken by India in the early part of the decade. The UK, currently the fifth-biggest economy according to the CEBR and its GDP is expected to be 23% higher than that in France by 2035, mainly thanks to the growing digital economy.

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