Opinion: 2020 was hardly a plague year

Official data: 2020 was no plague year

By Niall McCrae

A widely-reported survey, conducted in summer last year, asked members of the general public how many people had died from Covid-19. On average, they believed that 7% of the British population had perished, with women believing as high as 10%.  In fact, in a town of ten thousand people, merely six would have died of / with Covid-19.     

Rather than the shrinkage that be expected with a serious plague, the population of the UK increased over three times faster than in the previous year. The Office for National Statistics estimated the population in mid-2019 as 66796807, up 0.5% on the previous year. The United Nations’ Worldometer website estimated the population in mid-2020 as 67886011, a growth of 1.6%. The upward trend has continued throughout the pandemic, and in the autumn the figure of 68 million was surpassed. 

We are now well into 2021 with Covid mortality data continuing to be counted cumulatively. Normally the ‘winter season’ runs from autumn to spring, giving a more meaningful annual total for flu, colds and pneumonia than from a calendar year. The initial outbreak was at the end of 2019-2020, with 42000 deaths by June. The death toll had doubled by January 2021, but this is not normal reporting. Combining two annual periods invalidates the ratio of deaths per head of population.  If this was done for other seasonal respiratory infections, mortality would run into millions over the past two or three decades. The numerator must fit the denominator.

When the annus horribilus ended, the Office for National Statistics provided the media with evidence of carnage: overall mortality was 14% higher than the five-year average. The BBC reported the highest death toll since the Second World War, but this was disingenuous.   As statistician Mark Ellse showed, after accounting for a growing and ageing population, 2020 was not a particularly bad year. In England & Wales, the chance of dying was slightly higher than in 2019, when there had been an unusually low flu mortality – and lower than in 2008.

Chance of survival

Age	2008	2019	2020
Under 65	99.8%	99.83%	99.82%
Over 65	95.2%	95.9%	95.5%

 

As Ellse calculated, the chance of dying for people aged over 65 in the years 2013 to 2019 averaged 4.3%, and this increased by merely 0.2% in 2020. 

Although Covid-19 caused a dramatic surge in mortality in April (peaking at 22351 deaths in the week ending 17th), some of this was due to restricted access to health services and public fear. Heart medical journal revealed that deaths from heart disease in private homes increased by 35% in the four months from March to June, resulting in 2279 more fatalities than the average of the previous six years. 

Lockdown kills. A study by Rabail Chaudry and colleagues in the Lancet compared 50 countries and found that lockdowns had no effect on Covid-19 death rates. But such drastic action endangers lives. In August, Office for National Statistics data showed that this blunt and futile strategy caused 16000 unnecessary deaths. Cancer screening and treatment, if delayed, allow malignant disease to spread and become terminal. Mental health problems have escalated, and the suicide figure for 2020 is sure to have risen significantly. The government, however, fails to conduct an impact assessment on its Covid interventions. 

To conclude, 2020 was not extreme. It is likely that a large proportion of the excess of 85000 deaths over the recent average were due to the Covid regime rather than Covid disease. Sadly, the NHS continues to prioritise the coronavirus over other serious conditions, with many hospitals cancelling surgery for cancer. Since 6th March 2020, when the first Covid-219 death occurred in the UK, millions of patients have learned that is not ‘our NHS’ but an institution to save by sacrifice.