Inflation rises to 0.7% as experts predict bigger numbers to come

Figures from the Office for National Statistics have shown that the UK’s inflation rate has risen to 0.7% in the 12 months to March which was up from 0.4% in February. This figure was pushed up by the increased cost of fuel, transport and clothes. The figures, released today from the ONS were slightly below previous forecasts. 

The ONS also said that fuel prices in March showed their biggest annual increase since January 2020. In addition to this, inflation is expected to rise further due to higher energy and oil prices. The Bank of England is now forecasting that inflation could reach 1.9% by the end of 2021, whilst other experts are predicting that figure to comfortably exceed 2% before the end of year.

Jonathan Athow is the ONS’s deputy national statistician, and he has said: “The rate of inflation increased with petrol prices rising and clothes recovering from the falls seen in February. However, food prices fell back on the year, as prices of some staples were lower than at the start of the pandemic”.

Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Samuel Tombs, has said: “Looking ahead, CPI inflation looks set to jump to about 1.7% in April, driven primarily by a large semi-annual increase in electricity and natural gas prices, as well as the anniversary of the collapse in oil prices at the start of the pandemic. April’s data also will be collected after shops reopened and hospitality businesses resumed outdoor service, so the inflation rates for clothing and food service activities probably will both rise”.

And Paul Craig of Quilter Investors has stated that as the UK economy opening up after lockdown begins, inflation had reached a turning point. He said: “Price growth is now on an upward trajectory, and should remain so for some time to come,” he warned. “From here, inflation may tick markedly higher if the steady drip of consumer spending morphs into a waterfall as lockdown restrictions are lifted and households spend some of their accumulated pandemic savings”.

-->