As the first day of the campaign starts there is a very interesting article on Political Betting that details the unfavourability levels of the three main leaders:
If you had followed the 2017 General Election only through the prism of leader ratings then the actual outcome with the Labour recovery would have been less of a surprise. For these were showing that Theresa May’s numbers getting steadily worse and that Corbyn’s were improving very rapidly in the run up to election. Indeed by election day Corbyn had jumped out of negative territory.
The ratings format I like the most and the one that tends to be be universal in the US is over favorability because there can be no ambiguity. Thus many non-LAB voters could honestly say they approve or are satisfied with Corbyn’s performance as leader but would view him unfavourably.
About 4 years ago YouGov started doing regular favorability ratings as a result of suggestions from me and have continued doing them to this day.
The latest numbers based on fieldwork that took place last week are in the panel above and as can be seen that in net terms Johnson and Swinson are about level. The latter suffers from being much less known and fewer people have an opinion of her.
Corbyn’s unfavourables continue to be very high and should be a serious worry for the party as it prepares to go into the campaign. His party’s hope, of course, is that we’ll see a repetition of the recovery at GE2017
In the next seven weeks there’ll be many voting intention polls coming out but relatively few leader ratings. My emphasis will be on the latter.
The other main story of the day is that a number of high profile figures will not be standing including Amber Rudd who had hoped to have the whip returned to her.
The full list of MPs stepping down:
Conservative
- David Tredinnick, Bosworth
- Glyn Davies, Montgomeryshire
- Jeremy LeFroy, Stafford
- Keith Simpson, Broadland
- Caroline Spelman, Meriden
- Michael Fallon, Sevenoaks
- Jo Johnson, Orpington
- Nick Hurd, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
- Claire Perry, Devizes
- David Jones, Clwyd West
- Mark Prisk, Hertford and Stortford
- Bill Grant, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
- Hugo Swire, East Devon
- Mark Field, Cities of London and Westminster
- Seema Kennedy, South Ribble
- Sarah Newton, Truro and Falmouth
- Patrick McLoughlin, Derbyshire Dales
- Nicholas Soames, Mid Sussex
- David Lidington, Aylesbury
- Alan Duncan, Rutland and Melton
Labour
- Ronnie Campbell, Blyth Valley
- Jim Fitzpatrick, Poplar and Limehouse
- Kevin Barron, Rother Valley
- Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West
- Stephen Pound, Ealing North
- Kate Hoey, Vauxhall
- Roberta Blackman-Woods, City of Durham
- Gloria De Piero, Ashfield
- Albert Owen, Ynys Mon
- Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme
- John Mann, Bassetlaw
- Ann Clwyd, Cynon Valley
- Ian Lucas, Wrexham
Lib Dem
- Norman Lamb, North Norfolk
- Vince Cable, Twickenham
- Heidi Allen, South Cambridgeshire
Independent
- Ken Clarke, Rushcliffe
- Guto Bebb, Aberconwy
- Oliver Letwin, West Dorset
- Richard Harrington, Watford
- Justine Greening, Putney
- Alistair Burt, North East Bedfordshire
- Richard Benyon, Newbury
- Rory Stewart, Penrith and The Border
- Amber Rudd, Hastings and Rye
Other
- Nick Boles, Independent Progressive Conservative, Grantham and Stamford
- Joan Ryan, The Independent Group For Change, Enfield North
- John Bercow, Speaker, Buckingham
Lead Correspondent | David Clews is the Lead Correspondent for UNN, with over 20 years of political/campaigning experience and a wealth of social media and communication skills David gets to the heart of what is really important to the real people of the UK.
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