Airdrie and Shots by-election- the lessons which must be learned for the preservation of the UK

The Airdrie and Shots by-election, held on 13^th May, was almost forgotten about after the thousands of elections across the UK the week before, including the Hartlepool by-election.

This included lack of attention by the media and was reflected in the low turnout of 34.3%, compared with a UK Parliamentary by- election average turnout of 46.5%.

However, this by-election was significant for the reason that it highlighted why the SNP now have 45 of the UK Parliament’s Scottish  59 MP’s, when they only achieved 45% of the vote. ( In fact at the General Election, they achieved 48 MP’s, two of which are now new Alba party MP’s, and one Independent). If the 1% vote given to the pro-separatist Scottish Greens is taken into account, the combined pro-UK political party vote was close to 54%, not too dissimilar to the pro-UK vote in the September 2014 Scottish independence referendum.

There will always be division in Scotland until the UK government firmly says NO to another referendum ever

The reality is that in Scotland, elections tend to be largely dominated by the issues of Unionism or separatism, and that situation has not changed since the lead up to the referendum held back then. Outwardly, the main parties have tried to ignore this fact, but inwardly they know the reality. So do the majority of the public. They may not like it, but the situation is likely to continue until the SNP are firmly dealt with.

Airdrie and Shots should have been won by a pro-UK candidate

If the Airdrie and Shots by –election is analysed, the constituency has an interesting history.

In 2010 it was won with 58.2% of the votes by then Labour MP Pamela Nash at a time when Labour was the dominant force in Scotland. She is in fact the Chief Executive of Scotland In Union, a pro-UK all party political body set up in 2015. It advocates tactical voting for pro-UK MP’s at elections.

She did apply to be the Labour candidate this time but was beaten by Kenneth Stephenson, a local Councillor.

He did do relatively well and it is an unknown as to whether Labour could have regained the seat with her as their candidate.

The Single Transferable Vote system would destroy the SNP

The previous MP for the constituency was the well- known former MP and government Minister John Reid, who ironically campaigned against having the Single Transferable vote at the 2011 electoral reform referendum.

If that system was in existence for Scottish MP’s, there is no doubt that SNP representation at Westminster would take a sharp nose dive, in line with their actual electoral support.

Tactical voting would have won this seat back from the SNP

At this by-election, it is clear that it was an election the separatists should not have won.

The new SNP incumbent, Anum Qaiser-Javed was elected on a reduced majority of 1757 votes, with 10,129 votes compared with Labour’s 8372 votes. If the Conservative candidate’s 2812 votes are added, there would have been a pro-UK MP elected with 11,184 votes, not including the 220 Liberal Democrat and a small number of other pro-Unionist party candidates.

The pro-separatist Scottish Greens did not stand, with the realisation that if they had done so and split the vote, that the seat might have been re-gained by the Unionists.

The pro-UK parties seemed to have some sort of death wish because it was blatantly obvious that if the three main parties of Labour, Conservative and Liberal did not come to some sort of agreement, the seat would be not be retained, as is what happened.

An example of the madness prevailing was the fact that a few small pro-UK parties stood, and had very poor results indeed. The Reform party and UKIP had the grand combined total of 84 votes.

The lesson for all pro-UK parties in first past the post elections in Scotland is to only stand if you are the front runner. If you are not, you are unpatriotically making it easier for the SNP to win.

The Alliance4Unity, a political party set up by George Galloway and others, to promote voting for the preferred pro-UK candidates in elections, had been hard at work to persuade people to tactically vote.

They did not quite achieve the objective in this by-election, although the Conservative vote dipped by 4.7% and the Libdem by 1.6%, with the preferred Labour candidate increasing by a proportionate 6.5%.

So this was an election which should have been won by a pro-UK party, and the only reason it wasn’t was because of pettiness and refusal to have a formal agreement on a preferred choice candidate.

Need for some form of pro-UK Electoral pact

This really has to change. However, there is a suspicion that the current situation suits the Conservative party. They do not want the Labour party to regain their dominance in Scottish MP’s seats thus aiding the possibility of a Labour government. They are even prepared to sacrifice less Scottish Tory MP’s and instead have more SNP ones, if this means they stay in power.

Giving in to the SNP only makes them demand more and obtain more votes because they are perceived to be strong

The problem of the SNP dates back to well before the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum.

In the 2010 UK General Election, the SNP achieved 19.9% of the vote and had been hovering around that sort of percentage vote since 1992.

However in May 1999 there was a referendum on Scottish devolution, proposed by the then Labour government, which brought in a devolved Assembly for Scotland.

It could be argued that this encouraged the secessionist SNP to promote their cause because by the 2011 Scottish Assembly elections they had 47 of 129 seats ( then still a minority).

Grave mistake to have the 2014 referendum

So after 2011, the SNP pushed and pushed and unfortunately the then Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron rashly caved in to Alex Salmond’s demands for an Independence referendum.

The lead up to this referendum was well over a year and this meant that the secessionists ( SNP) were automatically given 50% of the political media time and space, when previously it had been divided proportionately between the political parties. This opportunity for continuous propaganda was ruthlessly exploited by the secessionists and they managed to increase the vote in their favour.

After the referendum which they lost  44.7% to 55.3%, they then proceeded to obtain a just under 50% share of the votes in the 2015 UK General Election.

Their votes then dipped to 36.9% in the 2017 General Election, and then increased to 45% in the 2019 one.

In the latter, they had 81.4% of the seats with 48 seats, while the Conservatives had 10.2% of the seats with 6 seats with 25.1% of the votes, and Labour had 1.7% of the seats with 1 seat with 18.6% of the vote, and the Libdems had 6.8% of the seats with 4 seats and 9.5% of the vote.

SNP’s invalid claim for a referendum

In the recent elections to the Scottish Parliament, the SNP have claimed that because they have of 64 of the 129 seats, that they have a mandate to bring in legislation for another Scottish Independence referendum. They have not got a majority but are in a majority with the support of the 8 Scottish Green MSP’s.

Even with some electoral reform in Scotland, the system there is a sort of half measure and does not bring in the sort of electoral fairness a proper STV ( Single Transferable Vote) system would implement.

The reality is that after these elections there is still no majority for having another referendum on Independence, let alone vote for it. The percentage votes for those pro-UK candidates still were higher than those for pro-independence. Another referendum would achieve nothing except further division and damage to the reputation of Scotland.

Some of the mainstream media have been promoting breaking up the UK

The problem in Scotland is not only the SNP, but the mainstream media, most of whom blatantly promote their separatism. Straight after the May 6^th elections, it was the so called British Broadcasting Corporation who were  pushing the another referendum narrative, as if there was justification for it, when there is absolutely none !

There are no valid arguments for another referendum

The Scottish Parliament does not have any constitutional mandates as these are reserved powers for the UK Parliament. When voters elect members of the Scottish Parliament, they vote for them on the basis of the powers they have, not on ones they don’t have !

The SNP argue that because there is a basis on the agreement on the Northern Ireland that there can be referendum on them becoming united with the Republic of Ireland, that this remote and yet to be defined scenario, means they can have another referendum to leave the UK. They can’t and there is no comparison !

They have also had their once in a lifetime referendum and they lost.

There is also the fact that if the mistake was ever made to reconsider this matter, many people would insist that the potential break- up of the United Kingdom is a matter for all British citizens, and not just those living in Scotland. There are also issues such as the need for at least a 75% turnout ( 84.59% in 2014), and any decision needing to be endorsed by at least 60% of the total electorate.

The SNP go on about the need for “democracy” but everyone knows that their version means ignoring all votes until and if they go in their favour.

The SNP are using this situation to promote their agenda, as without it they know their cause will wither away and die.

The way to deal with the SNP is to give them a permanent NO to an independence referendum

The Conservative government is now trying to deal with the separatist demands by offering additional funds to local Scottish Councils for recovery of their economies after covid-19. This does in fact  have merit, to empower local authorities more, and indeed doing this can help sidestep the additional bureaucratic extra layer of government which devolved administrations involve.

However, it is important that all Councils across the UK are given equal treatment and this is perceived as fair to all British citizens.

As for the SNP and their demands, the answer is to put the nail in the SNP referendum coffin.

No, nay, never, no, nay never no more !

Once everyone knows there will be no referendum ever, the destructive powers of the SNP can be ended and Scotland can rise up again, as a proud member of the United Kingdom of four nations.

Anthony Webber

Independent Political Commentator

Assisted Better Together in 2014

Assisted Scotland in Union

Assisted pro –Union candidates in 2015 General Election

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