ANALYSIS: Nigel Farage on Boris-Can he be trusted?

Nigel Farage has written today in The Daily Express and our Lead Correspondent David Clews looks in depth with a critical analysis on what Mr Farage has to say:

THE Tory leadership contest has been so exceedingly dull, you might even imagine that Theresa ‘the Maybot’ May was running. That seems strangely appropriate.

Because even if Boris Johnson becomes party leader and prime minister, the best we are likely to get from these Tories is a rehash of Mrs May’s appalling Withdrawal Agreement; a warmed-over version of her worst deal in history. There seems little chance of the Conservatives delivering on Boris’s firm promise that we will leave the EU on 31st October. And if they follow in Mrs May’s footsteps and betray Brexit yet again, the British public is unlikely to forgive or ever forget.

Tough words here from Mr Farage, Boris is definitely going to try and get the Withdrawal Agreement looked at again as he has always been in favour of a Canada+ style deal. He is also correct that if Boris fails it will be the end of the Tory Party.

To date, all of the Tory candidates have been playing safe, hiding behind their PR videos and creating not the slightest ripple of public interest or excitement. Even Mr Johnson has been playing the role of Sensible, Dull Boris this time. The only exception is Rory Stewart, whose enterprising and entertaining campaign at least makes it appear that he cares and is enjoying the circus. He looks likely to emerge as a much better-known political figure. For the most part, however, the candidates have been talking to themselves rather than the electorate.

Mr Farage, in my opinion, is being somewhat disingenuous here. The Brexit Party has been employing highly slick PR videos and being in the position Boris is in there is no point in risking things. I also question Mr Farage’s support and praise of Rory Stewart. Stewart is absolutely prepared to betray Brexit and work with the opposition to do so. Making a few mildly amusing videos on Twitter does not show that he cares rather he represents a sense of upper class entitlement where he believes he is born to lead.

There is no post-Brexit vision beyond the tired sounding my-tax-cuts-will-be-bigger-than-yours contest. What of Brexit itself, by far the biggest issue facing our country? Half of the candidates are Leavers and half are Remainers, reflecting the new divide in British politics.

Again slightly hypocritical of Mr Farage when The Brexit Party has no policies of its own.

When we talk about Tory leadership rivals as Leavers, however, let us remember that all of these candidates collapsed at the third time of asking in parliament and voted for Mrs May’s deal – really a punitive treaty, penned by Msr Barnier, that would bind Britain to EU rules.

Very true but there may have been a willingness to vote for it as part of wider political games in the background but Boris did severely damage his brand amongst leavers.

I have little doubt that Boris will win. But what then? He can expect no easy ride if he becomes prime minister. Boris keeps assuring everybody that we will leave by whatever means on 31st October. Several other candidates and his own allies have already expressed doubts that will really be the case. Now Brussels is briefing the media that the UK will not leave the EU this year.

Of which Rory Stewart is an integral part so why praise him?

When I hear Boris say we will leave on the 31st of October, I am reminded that Mrs May told us 108 times that we would leave on the 29th of March. Of course, Eurosceptic Tory friends assure me that everything will be absolutely fine once Boris wins and that the Brexit Party won’t be needed any more. We shall see about that. I have no doubt that if he wins, then initially there will be something of a ‘Boris bounce’ in Tory support.

But, given the dire state of Conservative fortunes, they will need a bounce about as high as Big Ben. When the Brexit Party won last month’s European elections, the Tories finished fifth with just nine per cent of the vote – the worst result in the party’s history.

A YouGov poll published on Friday evening puts the Brexit Party in the national lead on 26 percent with the Tories languishing on 17 percent. The loss of faith in the mainstream parties among Sunday Express readers and many other voters means that, if a General Election was held yesterday, the Brexit Party could well win.

During the EU elections it was a no-brainer to support The Brexit Party as it was a fantastic opportunity to teach the establishment a lesson.

A general election is completely different and as Peterborough showed, of course I acknowledge the allegations made of fraud, The Brexit Party juggernaut ground to a halt and the split vote allowed a significant win for Labour that emboldened the remain movement within that party.

The Conservative Party’s problems are too profound to be solved by a change of face at the top. Any Boris bounce is likely to be short lived. Things could well get worse for them if we do not leave on the 31st October, given that Boris has raised expectations about Brexit. Voters will see it as another betrayal of explicit promises made by a Tory prime minister.

Totally agree with Mr Farage on this one, The Tories have major longterm issues that look to be extremely difficult to solve.

On the other hand, if Boris is seen to force the issue, either by proroguing Parliament or simply running down the clock with no-deal the default position, he will face open civil war. Rory Stewart is already saying he will ask MPs to vote to bring down his own government. I have a feeling that any complacency among my Tory Eurosceptic friends may turn to despair soon enough.

Exactly Nigel so why give Rory Stewart any praise?

Indeed the Conservative party’s historic problem, the fault-line that has always split the party over the European issue, could well be about to get even deeper. All of which presents Conservative voters with a dilemma. As the recent Peterborough by-election showed, the real contest in many seats is now between Jeremy Corbyn’s increasingly Remainer Labour, and the Brexit Party.

And if you vote Tory, you are more likely to get Corbyn, a second referendum – and no sign of the clean-break Brexit that 17.4m voted for three years ago. The Tory leadership context is due to drone on for another few weeks.

Peterborough showed that this was not actually the case and it was in fact The Brexit Party splitting the vote to allow a Labour/ Corbyn win.

But even if it is cut short and Boris is anointed leader unopposed, as some senior Conservatives would like, the date that is looming large on the horizon is the 31st of October. On the Brexit Party’s social media pages, we have a calendar counting down the days until the date they have promised we will leave. We will not let them get away with it again.

Good to keep giving The Brexit Party a plug!

The one thing we can surely agree with Mr Johnson about is that, if they fail to deliver a proper Brexit by that deadline, the Tory Party may well ‘kick the bucket’. And it will surely deserve whatever kicking it gets from voters.

Conclusions-

In my opinion Mr Farage is very right and very wrong with his analysis. Of course as an opposition politician it is his job to oppose but I feel that we now have a real chance to deliver Brexit fully in Boris Johnson. Whether Mr Farage likes it or not he does not have any say or ability to get involved directly in the negotiations therefore his rhetoric is hyperbole.

I am disappointed he used this article to praise, perhaps inadvertently, Rory Stewart. Stewart is a clear and present danger to Brexit whilst his sickeningly liberal policies would spell disaster for the UK.

We cannot underestimate the role that Boris played in delivering a leave vote by reaching people and communities across the UK with message of hope. I believe that Boris and the Tories deserve one last chance to deliver a full and clean Brexit and we should get behind him on this. I still also believe that long term the political parties in Westminster and the people involved need wholesale change but delivering Brexit is the key issue of the day.

Mr Farage at the moment is right to be sceptical but I feel he could be more constructive in his criticism. I am looking to be pragmatic here but of course not all of you will agree with this.

If Boris and the Tories fail to deliver Brexit then the Tories deserve to be crushed and wiped from the electoral map and I would give my wholehearted support to Mr Farage in doing so.

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