Once again this issue has been raised extensively on social media. Some of the information going around is inaccurate while other parts don’t fully explore the implications of remaining a member of the EU. We have done our best to try and get to the bottom of what it really means. This would normally be part of our Premium Content section but due to the importance of it we have made it available for all readers. Please be sure to subscribe and visit our online shop to support the work that we do.

The United Kingdom is currently mired in a constitutional quagmire. On the 23rd of June 2016 a majority of people in the UK voted on a ballot paper to exit the European Union. In a leaflet sent out before the referendum, the UK government stated “This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide.” On the 29th of March 2017 the United Kingdom Government invoked what is know as ‘Article 50’ and Article 50 reads as follows:

Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3)[12] of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council [of the European Union], acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

The two year period since the evocation of Article 50 has come and gone which has led to a legal challenge by Robin Tilbrook of the English Democrats raising a case against the UK Government stating that we have in fact left the EU and we have covered this in great detail.

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One of the major issues of contention is around what happens if the UK does not exit the EU as intended and we will go on to explore the issues surrounding that. Firstly let us familiarise ourselves with what the Lisbon Treaty really is:

The Treaty of Lisbon (initially known as the Reform Treaty) is an international agreement that amends the two treaties which form the constitutional basis of the European Union (EU). The Treaty of Lisbon was signed by the EU member states on 13 December 2007, and entered into force on 1 December 2009.

It amends the Maastricht Treaty (1993), known in updated form as the Treaty on European Union (2007) or TEU, and the Treaty of Rome (1957), known in updated form as the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (2007) or TFEU.[3] It also amends the attached treaty protocols as well as the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM).

The previous major change to the UK’s relationship with Europe was of course the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 which initially was to have seen a referendum for the UK on this issue by John Major’s Conservatives that then did not take place resulting in a mass backbench revolt that was ultimately unsuccessful.

In 2007 The Treaty of Lisbon was the next major change to the way the UK functions within the EU and then Prime Minister Gordon Brown ruled out a referendum on this by saying:  “The Reform Treaty sets the framework to ensure that an enlarged EU can function well. This is the right time to bring to an end to this prolonged period of inward looking institutional debate.”

Brown famously failed to sign at the same time as other EU leaders with many arguing he was ‘ashamed’ of doing so.

There are two crucial dates that appear to be popping up in relation to The Lisbon Treaty and the UK’s relationship with the EU and they are 2020 and 2022. A comprehensive list of arguments made by those on the pro-Brexit side (1) are as follows (this is from a Mr C.M Baksa of Lancashire):

1: The UK along with all existing members of the EU lose their abstention veto in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon Treaty when the system changes to that of majority acceptance with no abstentions or veto’s being allowed.

2: All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU by 2022 as clearly laid out in the Lisbon treaty with no exceptions or veto’s.

3: All member states must adopt the Euro by 2022 and any new member state must do so within 2 years of joining the EU as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.

4: The London stock exchange will move to Frankfurt in 2020 and be integrated into the EU stock exchange resulting in a loss of 200,000 plus jobs in the UK because of the relocation. This has already been pre-agreed and is only on a holding pattern due to the Brexit negotiations, which if Brexit does happen the move is fully cancelled but if not and the UK remains a member it’s full steam ahead for the move.

5: The EU Parliament and ECJ become supreme over all legislative bodies of the UK.

6: The UK will adopt 100% of whatever the EU Parliament and ECJ lays down without any means of abstention or veto, negating the need for the UK to have the Lords or even the Commons as we know it today.

7: The UK will NOT be able to make its own trade deals.

8: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade tariffs.

9 The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade quotas.

10: The UK loses control of its fishing rights.

11: The UK loses control of its oil and gas rights.

12: The UK loses control of its borders and enters the Schengen region by 2022 as clearly laid down in the Lisbon treaty.

13: The UK loses control of its planning legislation.

14: The UK loses control of its armed forces including its nuclear deterrent.

15: The UK loses full control of its taxation policy.

16: The UK loses the ability to create its own laws and to implement them.

17: The UK loses its standing in the Commonwealth.

18: The UK loses control of any provinces or affiliated nations e.g.; Falklands, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar ect.

19: The UK loses control of its judicial system.

20: The UK loses control of its international policy.

21: The UK loses full control of its national policy.

22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right..

23: The UK loses control of its space exploration program.

24: The UK loses control of its Aviation and Sea lane jurisdiction .

25: The UK loses its rebate in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.

26: The UK’s contribution to the EU is set to increase by an average of 1.2bn pa and by 2.3bn pa by 2020

PROBABLE WORST-CASE OUTCOMES.

1: The UK will become nothing more than a vassal protectorate state.

2: With the continuation of freedom of movement, the population of the UK will continue to grow at a rate higher than pre-referendum level ranging between 400,000 to 675,000 per annum.

2.1; Which will result in not just wage suppression but even wage depression.

2.2; More than 500,000 new homes to be built annually (We are currently only managing 125,000).

2.3; House prices and rents will skyrocket annually by 23%.

2.4; Class sizes in schools would have to increase by 50% if not even double .

2.5; The NHS will become solely an emergency service of care provider as they would no longer be able to cope with the numbers of people needing care other than those of emergency.

2.6; GP’s will become triage centres.

2.7; Public transport will become permit holders use only.

2.8; Only those that did a serious crime namely murder will be given a custodial sentence.

2.9; The Court system becomes fully overrun to the point extreme cases only being heard and the rest being given an automatic fine.

2.10; Emergency services collapsing for not being able to cope with the scale of things.

2.11; Social care becoming solely private social care for those who can afford it.

2.12; Homelessness to increase by over 28% annually.

2.13; Unemployment to increase annually by 37%.

2.14; The Benefit system to collapse fully to the point of the return of soup kitchens and even workhouse existence.

2.15; Crime to increase by over 59% annually.

2.16; Shanty towns to become the norm standard of housing

3: Because the UK would no longer be able to make its own trade deals, nor control its tariffs or quotas, Food prices would increase by over 25% and the cost of living would go up by over 39%

4: Because the UK would lose its oil and gas rights it would also lose the revenue from taxation on them, resulting in a loss of over 600 billion per year in taxation revenue.

5: Because the UK will become a member state its percentage share of the vote on any new laws, regulations, treaties and everything else is at current member numbers 3.57% of the vote. That’s right folks the UK say in the EU if it was to remain a member is 3.57% total.

From what we note these are the main points used by most people making this argument in relation to The Lisbon Treaty.

On the ‘Fact- Checking’ Website Full Fact (2) they have issued a line by line analysis of the points raised by Professor Steve Peers of the University of Essex who according to his biography states: His research interests include EU Constitutional and Administrative, Justice and Home Affairs, External Relations, Human Rights, Internal Market and Social Law. He has written over fifty articles on many aspects of EU law in journals including the Common Market Law Review, European Law Review, International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Yearbook of European Law and the Cambridge Yearbook of European Legal Studies, as well as many chapters in books. He has worked as a consultant for the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the House of Lords Select Committee on the European Union and the Council of Europe, and contributed to the work of NGOs such as Amnesty International, Justice, Statewatch, ILGA-Europeand the Immigration Law Practitioners Association (ILPA).

Peers states in response to the points being raised:

1: The UK along with all existing members of the EU lose their abstention veto in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon Treaty when the system changes to that of majority acceptance with no abstentions or veto’s being allowed.

This is wrong. The Lisbon Treaty did make changes to how EU law gets passed which reduced the scope of states’ veto ability, but it did not abolish veto powers; and these changes are already in effect, rather than coming into force in 2020. The term “abstention veto” is not a part of European Union law (as you can see by the fact that most Google results for the term are references to this list.)

EU legislation has to be approved by the Council of the European Union, which is made up of ministerial representatives of the governments of all EU member states.

Depending on the type of issue it is voting on, it has three different standards for passing laws—a simple majority (where 15 out of the 28 states must agree); “qualified majority” (where laws must be approved by at least 55% of states, that have to represent at least 65% of the EU’s population); and a unanimous vote (where all voting states must agree, which therefore gives any single government a veto over the law.)

The Lisbon Treaty changed a large number of policy areas from being ones that needed unanimity (thus giving states a veto) to ones that were decided by qualified majority. At the same time, the Lisbon Treaty changed how qualified majority voting worked—this actually gave the UK slightly more voting power than it had before through the link with a country’s population, which is widely seen as having benefited large countries such as the UK, France and Germany.

The UK also doesn’t have to participate in EU legislation relating to justice and home affairs, but can choose to opt-in if it wants to.

It’s not clear what is meant by the claim that the Lisbon Treaty would see states losing their “abstention veto”. On issues that require unanimity, it’s the case that simply abstaining from a vote does not stop it passing (the Lisbon Treaty did not change this), but states can still veto by voting against.

2: All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU by 2022 as clearly laid out in the Lisbon treaty with no exceptions or veto’s.

This is not something contained in the Lisbon Treaty or in any other EU agreements.

While some European politicians have spoken about their desire for a more federal European system, akin to the United States of America, there are currently no developed plans for this to happen.

The Lisbon Treaty only uses the term “federal” when describing the Federal Republic of Germany and (on one or two occasions) Austria and Belgium too. At no point does the Treaty mention the year 2022.

3: All member states must adopt the Euro by 2022 and any new member state must do so within 2 years of joining the EU as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.

At the moment, 19 of the 28 EU members are part of the ‘Euro area’. Both the UK and Denmark have “opt-outs” to joining. The UK’s opt-out, which says that the UK “shall be under no obligation” to adopt the Euro, is explicitly referenced in the Lisbon Treaty.

The treaty does reference the ultimate goal of “the euro becoming the currency of all Member States of the Union”, but that doesn’t override the UK’s opt out, and it does not set a time limit on that goal.

The seven EU member states that do not currently use the Euro, and do not have an opt-out, are expected to join the Euro, but only when they meet certain conditions. These criteria include: inflation (the way prices change over time) and long-term interest rates in that country must be within a certain distance of the three “best performing” countries in the EU, public finances must be “sound and sustainable”, exchange rates must be stable. The Lisbon Treaty says that countries not meeting these requirements will not have to adopt the euro.

A similar claim, based on a prediction in an opinion piece in the Telegraph from 2014, has been circulating recently, claiming that all EU members will have to adopt the Euro after 2020. The UK’s opt-out means that it, and any other countries with opt-outs, do not have to do this.

4: The London stock exchange will move to Frankfurt in 2020 and be integrated into the EU stock exchange resulting in a loss of 200,000 plus jobs in the UK because of the relocation. (This has already been pre-agreed and is only on a holding pattern due to the Brexit negotiations, which if Brexit does happen, the move is fully cancelled – but if not and the UK remains a member it’s full steam ahead for the move.)

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Deutsche Börse (its German equivalent) announced in February 2016 that they had proposed a merger to combine their activities. (This merger was not set out in, or related to, the Lisbon Treaty.)

However the merger was blocked by the EU in March 2017, on the grounds that it risked creating a monopoly.

Under the terms of the proposal, the two businesses would have continued to operate under their existing brand names and would not have merged into an “EU stock exchange”—nor does any such stock exchange exist. There was discussion of some level of job losses as a potential result of the merger, but nothing close to the 200,000 scale, and the LSE denied that there was any planned relocation to Frankfurt.

Separately, in January 2017, Xavier Rolet, the Chief Executive of the London Stock Exchange, told a committee of MPs that over 200,000 UK jobs—across the country—could be at risk if the terms of Brexit meant financial “clearing” jobs had to leave the UK. This was not linked to the proposed merger with Deutsche Börse, and was explicitly spoken of as a possible result of Brexit, rather than a result of staying in the EU.

5: The EU Parliament and ECJ become supreme over all legislative bodies of the UK

EU law has to be approved by the European Parliament (made up of elected MEPs from all EU member states) and the Council of the EU (comprising relevant government representatives from each EU country). The Lisbon Treaty put the European Parliament’s power to approve law on an equal footing with the Council, and widened the number of areas over which they could make laws.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) is the highest court on matters of EU law.

For all EU member countries, EU law takes “supremacy” over domestic law—to ensure that rules are applied uniformly throughout the EU. The UK has accepted the supremacy of EU law for some time—since parliament passed the European Communities Act in 1972—so it’s not as a result of the Lisbon Treaty.

EU law doesn’t cover all aspects of UK law. In areas where no EU law is applicable, the UK parliament and courts are the supreme bodies for making and judging law.

6: The UK will adopt 100% of whatever the EU Parliament and ECJ lays down without any means of abstention or veto, negating the need for the UK to have the Lords or even the Commons as we know it today.

As discussed earlier, the UK also has some ability to veto EU laws, and has opt-outs from certain EU policies.

As we explained above, it’s correct that the UK (as an EU member) must adopt any EU laws that are passed—but there are many areas of UK law not covered by the EU. This has been the case for decades, during which time the House of Commons and Lords have continued to function and pass UK law.

7: The UK will NOT be able to make its own trade deals.

The next few items on the list largely describe the status quo of EU membership.

It’s correct that the UK can’t strike its own trade deals if we remain in the EU, as this has to be done at an EU-wide level. But we would be a part of (and have influence over) all the deals that the EU negotiates. For the most part this isn’t related to the Lisbon Treaty. Even before the Treaty came into force EU member countries couldn’t agree their own trade deals and the EU had largely exclusive powers over trade. The Lisbon Treaty expanded these powers slightly.

8: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade tariffs.

It’s correct that under the rules of the EU’s customs union, all EU countries have to set the same tariffs on imports from outside the EU. There are no tariffs on trade between EU countries. This is not related to the Lisbon Treaty.

9: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade quotas.

The EU applies a number of “tariff quotas” (where tariffs are reduced or removed on a certain amount of trade in particular goods). As a member state, the UK follows these and can’t set its own quotas. This is not related to the Lisbon Treaty.

10: The UK loses control of its fishing rights

As a member of the EU, the UK is part of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), which originated back in the 1970s. Under this policy, the EU sets a limit on the number or tonnage of each species of fish that can be caught by each country in a year.

Fishing vessels registered in the EU have equal access to EU waters, with two exceptions. At the moment EU member states are allowed to place limits on who can fish in their territorial waters, and up to 100 nautical miles fishing is restricted to those who traditionally fished there, but the legislation covering this expires in 2022. Whether it will be replaced is a matter for the politicians to determine.

We’ve written more about this here.

The Lisbon Treaty sets out that the EU has powers over “the conservation of marine biological resources” as part of the CFP and shares power with member countries over the rest of fisheries policy.

11: The UK loses control of its oil and gas rights

Within the EU, national governments have control over where companies can search for and produce oil and gas in their countries, and over granting licenses to companies. In the UK, onshore oil and gas licensing powers are devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. So remaining in the EU wouldn’t mean losing these rights.

There are EU rules which govern how licensing must occur. The government has said these EU licensing rules, and rules on environmental protections, will continue to operate even if there is a no deal Brexit.

(The Lisbon Treaty does discuss the broad goal of a more integrated European energy policy, but states that “such measures shall not affect a Member State’s right to determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, its choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply”.)

12: The UK loses control of its borders and enters the Schengen region by 2022 – as clearly laid down in the Lisbon treaty

This is false. The Schengen area is a group of 22 EU countries and four non-EU countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) which don’t have internal border controls.

Six EU countries aren’t part of Schengen, including the UK.

The UK has an opt-out from Schengen and hasn’t signed the Schengen agreement. The agreements setting out the UK’s opt-out also can’t be removed without the consent of the UK. If the government did want to get rid of the opt-out and join the Schengen area there would need to be a referendum on this.

It doesn’t say anywhere in the Lisbon Treaty that the UK has to join the Schengen system by 2022, or by any other date.

The UK does take part in some elements of the Schengen system, for example those relating to criminal law and policing rules. These special circumstances, and the ability of the UK to ‘opt-in’ to parts of Schengen are reflected in the Lisbon Treaty.

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13: The UK loses control of its planning legislation

This is false. Member states have to follow EU laws on some aspects of planning. But EU laws on town and country planning must be unanimously supported by member states. This means the UK can effectively veto EU planning legislation as a member of the EU.

14: The UK loses control of its armed forces including its nuclear deterrent

This is false. The EU doesn’t have its own army, although some key players are supportive of the idea. The Lisbon Treaty sets out that the EU’s “common security and defence policy shall include the progressive framing of a common Union defence policy.”

But unlike in other areas of EU decision-making, the European Commission can’t propose laws about security and defence. And it can’t implement common defence policies unless the European Council unanimously approves. This effectively gives the UK a veto on any EU defence policies.

UK law also states that no such common EU defence powers can be handed from the UK to the EU without the approval of parliament and a referendum on the decision.

The Lisbon Treaty does not say anything about the UK’s nuclear deterrent. The House of Commons Library says: “Decision making on the use of British nuclear weapons is a sovereign matter for the UK. There is no requirement to gain the approval of the United States or other NATO allies for their use and only the Prime Minister can authorise an instruction to fire.”

15: The UK loses full control of its taxation policy

The EU does not have a direct role in raising taxes or setting tax rates, and the EU also has no say in how countries spend their tax revenues.

However, the EU does oversee national tax rules, in order to ensure they are consistent with relevant EU policies.

For instance, all member states have to have broadly similar rules and minimum rates on VAT, and taxes on petrol, tobacco and alcohol.

Elsewhere, the EU aims to ensure that its members’ tax policies conform to EU principles such as non-discrimination and free movement. It also wants a coordinated EU approach on tax evasion. The Lisbon Treaty led to some small changes to tax policy—but most of the examples listed above pre-date it.

EU decisions on tax matters require unanimous agreement from all member countries, so the UK effectively has a veto on them.

16: The UK loses the ability to create its own laws and to implement them

False. See answers to claims 5 and 6.

17: The UK loses its standing in the Commonwealths

The UK is a member of the Commonwealth—“a voluntary association of 53 independent and equal sovereign states”, where “all members have an equal say—regardless of size or economic stature”.

The UK’s membership of the Commonwealth is not affected by Brexit or by membership of the EU, and there is nothing in the Lisbon Treaty about the Commonwealth.

Commonwealth countries aren’t a collective trading bloc, but the UK might seek to do trade deals with Commonwealth countries after Brexit (something it can’t pursue on its own as part of the EU). There is some debate as to how feasible and valuable these would be.

18: The UK loses control of any provinces or affiliated nations e.g.: Falklands, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar etc

This is not stated anywhere in the Lisbon Treaty, nor would it happen as a result of the UK remaining in the EU.

The future of the UK’s relationship with Gibraltar has previously proved a sticking point in Brexit negotiations. The government has set out a “Memoranda of Understanding” on matters relating to Gibraltar, stating that this does “not imply any modification of the respective legal positions of the Kingdom of Spain or of the United Kingdom with regard to sovereignty and jurisdiction in relation to Gibraltar”. However, some new processes will be established (in areas like police and customs) to ensure cooperation between the UK and Spain after Brexit.

If the UK remained in the EU, its relationship with Gibraltar would presumably remain as it is now.

19: The UK loses control of its judicial system

False. See answers to claims 5 and 6.

20: The UK loses control of its international policy

False. See answer to claims 7-9, and 14.

21: The UK loses full control of its national policy

That depends on what you mean by “full control”. The Lisbon Treaty widened the number of areas over which the EU parliament could pass laws, but there are many areas of UK law which are not covered by EU regulations. We explain this more in the answers to claims 5 and 6.

22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right.

This isn’t true.

23: The UK loses control of its space exploration program

The UK has its own space agency that’s part of the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy. It is responsible for leading on UK civil space policy and “its contribution to European initiatives”, coordinating investment and regulating UK civil space activities, among other things.

The Lisbon Treaty says that the EU has powers in “the areas of research, technological development and space … in particular to define and implement programmes”, but it also says that this isn’t at the expense of member countries also having powers in these areas.

It also says that the EU can draw up a European Space policy and “promote joint initiatives, support research and technological development and coordinate the efforts needed for the exploration and exploitation of space.” It also gives the European Parliament and the Council powers to create a European space programme. But excluded from this is the power to ‘harmonise’ the laws and regulations of member countries—or make them all the same on the issue.

The UK is a member of the European Space Agency (ESA), which sent astronaut Tim Peake into space in 2016. The ESA is not an EU body, so whether we stay in or leave the EU our membership of the ESA won’t be affected. Brexit will affect the UK’s ability to participate in some collaborative space programs such as the Galileo satellite navigation system.

24: The UK loses control of its Aviation and Sea lane jurisdiction

The EU has significant influence over the UK’s transport policy. Its rules on aviation cover a number of areas including licensing and safety. Most of these regulations were set out in Treaties which pre-date the Lisbon Treaty.

Shipping rules in the UK are governed by the UK’s membership of a number of international organisations including the International Maritime Organisation, the OECD, and the UN Commission on International Trade law; as well as the EU. The Lisbon Treaty says nothing specific about shipping. National vetoes over EU laws on shipping and aviation were dropped in the 1980s.

25: The UK loses its rebate in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon treaty

The UK, like several other EU members, gets a “rebate” which reduces the amount it pays into the EU budget.

The EU has proposed that we would lose our rebate if we stayed in the EU as a full member beyond 2020.

This is in line with an EU proposal to get rid of all the rebates it gives to its members—including Denmark and the Netherlands—over the course of the next budget.

The proposed removal of the rebate would be part of the “Multiannual financial framework” (the EU’s long-term budget) which requires unanimous agreement among member states, so the UK could potentially block it.

The Lisbon Treaty doesn’t mention the rebate at all.

26: The UK’s contribution to the EU is set to increase by an average of 1.2bn pa and by 2.3bn pa by 2020

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK public spending watchdog, has forecast that the UK will contribute around €16 billion to the EU budget in 2018, €17.2 billion in 2019 and €18.5 billion in 2020. That’s after any rebate or discount the UK receives, but before any money is spent in the UK by the EU.

In pounds that works out at around £14.1 billion in 2018, £15.2 billion in 2019 and £16.3 billion in 2020, based on the latest exchange rates, or an increase of around £1 billion per year.

2020 is the last year the UK would contribute towards the EU budget, assuming that the UK exits the EU and a withdrawal agreement is passed by parliament. It is also the year in which the EU’s current budget comes to an end (these generally run in seven year blocs and the rules around them were amended by the Lisbon Treaty—though not any specific amounts to be paid).

So where does this leave us? The question that has to be asked is who do you trust? One of the major issues during the last referendum was that certain promises and guarantees made by the Remain side turned out to be blatantly untrue as did the views of many supposed impartial ‘experts’.

In the book “What next: How to get the best from Brexit”, Conservative MEP and Leave campaigner Daniel Hannan looked back at some of the most extreme claims of the Remain campaign, adding that a second referendum would be a complete waste of time.

Hannan wrote:

 “If you are one of those still dreaming and scheming about a second referendum, ask yourself one question: on what would you base your campaign this time? You fired off a great deal of ammunition in the run-up to June 23, and most of it turned out to be dud.

You told us that British immigration officers would be thrown out of France, and that we’d have migration camps in Kent. In fact, within two weeks of the vote, the French government confirmed that the old arrangement would remain in place.”

There is of course the issues of the UK Army/ EU Army and Pesco as well as the UN Migration Pact that the UK has signed up to but these are other issues of major concern to many Brexit backers across the UK.

So cards on the table, what is our opinion of what The Lisbon Treaty could bring in terms of changes to the UK if it stays part of the EU. We have read HM Government’s implementation of Article 50 consolidated texts of the EU treaties as amended by The Treaty of Lisbon (4). The Professor from the University of Essex has intimated that neither dates of 2020 or 2022 are mentioned in this and from our analysis he is correct.

Therefore we have found no evidence to indicate that in 2020 or 2022 specific things will happen as indicated in some reports. We must stress we are not saying that is a fact we are only saying this is based upon our evidence and we would happily have this proved to the contrary with relevant evidence.

Our analysis also shows that the standard template of 26 major changes being used by many on the Brexit side using the Lisbon Treaty is not backed up by any evidence. However there is some truth in what is being said within those points and this is more to do with the UK’s future relationship with the EU and whether the democratic decision to leave the EU is not upheld.

In relation to the Treaty of Lisbon it is written specifically:

RESOLVED to implement a common foreign and security policy including the
progressive framing of a common defence policy, which might lead to a common
defence in accordance with the provisions of Article 42, thereby reinforcing the
European identity and its independence in order to promote peace, security and
progress in Europe and in the world.

Which to all intents and purposes is an EU army and co-ordinated defence scheme.

RESOLVED to achieve the strengthening and the convergence of their economies and
to establish an economic and monetary union including, in accordance with the
provisions of this Treaty and of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,
a single and stable currency. 

Which to all intents and purposes is the UK joining the Euro.

RESOLVED to continue the process of creating an ever closer union among the
peoples of Europe, in which decisions are taken as closely as possible to the citizen in
accordance with the principle of subsidiarity.

Which means the further erosion of UK sovereignty and Independence.

So in conclusion we have scepticism in relation to all sides of the argument without further and fully documented evidence. However we draw your attention to the articles of The Lisbon Treaty stated above that shows the UK is RESOLVED to further Defence Integration, RESOLVED to establishing a single currency and RESOLVED to create an ever closer Union.

On these issues alone that should surely be enough to let people realise we must leave the EU on a full and clean WTO Brexit.

Sources below and if you have any questions or observations please e-mail us on info@ukunity.org.uk

1- https://www.quora.com/Is-it-the-UK-s-decision-of-not-joining-the-euro-zone-and-keep-the-pound-as-its-independent-currency

2- https://fullfact.org/europe/viral-list-about-lisbon-treaty-wrong/

3- https://m.facebook.com/groups/323501851544521?view=permalink&id=419631228598249

4-https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/228848/7310.pdf

 

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