Boris Johnson needs to decide who he trusts most? –The advisors who have consistently got it wrong? Or the public who have consistently trusted him to deliver on his promises?
By Anthony Webber, Political Commentator and former Guernsey Politician
Back in March 2020, after its then Chief Minister stated that lockdowns were not suitable for the Bailiwick of Guernsey, the next day, there was a reversal, and the UK’s example was followed.
Like the UK, Guernsey followed the advice of their Medical Officer of Health, a Dr. Nicola Brink, a recent arrival in the Island, but this decision has been questioned behind the scenes for some time.
It could be argued that Guernsey has never had a serious problem and the small number of covid-19 related deaths have had an average age of in the eighties. The covid-19 related death rate is below the world average and hundreds per million below those of the UK.
However, the UK situation itself has now dramatically improved.
Like the UK, there has been an over-emphasis on the importance of “cases,” which we all know simply means those who have tested positive for covid-19, and not those who are seriously affected ( in fact a very small proportion indeed).
As a consequence of this misplaced policy, after coming out of lockdown shortly before the elections for the States of Guernsey ( local Parliament) last year, the Island was put back into one.
Guernsey is now effectively out of lockdowns and ahead of the UK in that respect.
However, what has upset a number of Islanders has been the very strict travel restrictions for those coming to and going from the Island. Whilst these are slightly easier for existing residents, they are still viewed as unnecessary and draconian by a growing number of people, totally fed up with about 15 months of restrictions.
In the UK, it has been announced that the Prime Minister will be making a statement about putting off “freedom day” from 21st June to 19th July. What is in this “Complaint” document is a bombshell as it demolishes the arguments for lockdowns and gives clear evidence as to why all freedoms should be restored without delay. It is not too late for the PM to have the courage to not back track on his original promise and to grant the nation the freedoms they have patiently waited for.
In Guernsey a number of local pressure groups have been set up, and a very strong one, the Channel Islands Integrative Health Alliance has compiled a sixty page “Complaint” dossier, stating legal, scientific, medical and statistical reasons as to why there should be no travel restrictions, and that life should return to normal. The author, Quentin AJ ( John) Ford, is a respected Freelance Data Analyst and Researcher, whose document is equally applicable to the UK’s travel traffic lights system and nonsensical quarantine requirements. It should definitely be seen by UK Ministers.
The “Complaint” argues that the Guernsey Civil Contingencies Authority ( CCA) should not be recommending the continuation of “Emergency Powers” when Guernsey politicians vote on their renewal next month. (In the UK such Emergency powers are not due for renewal until September/October).
All Guernsey politicians have been sent a copy of the “Complaint” and its recommendations.
It basically questions the very foundations of Guernsey’s lockdown policies, and is a bombshell politically. Up until now, the Guernsey authorities have been able to keep the local media onside and they have been reluctant to allow any questioning of the official line. This could change. In the UK the media is changing and there is rightly questioning of the apparent decision to delay the ending of lockdowns.
In Guernsey it has been like the Second World War when the Island was occupied by the Nazi Germans, and the local paper was under German control. In fact, when Guernsey had its first lockdown, the then Chief Minister admitted that the restrictions on the people of Guernsey were actually worse than under the Germans.
Now it is difficult for the Guernsey authorities to continue with restrictions on their citizens.
So far the local population have gone along with what has been asked of them, but the resistance is building up.
Indeed one local anti-lockdowns group is called “The Guernsey Resistance,” reminiscent of Second World War days when the passive resistance painted V for Victory signs across the Island.
It is clear that the authorities cannot ignore the facts put before them.
What has made matters worse for the CCA is that Quentin ( John) Ford has also written to HM Procurer, Megan Pullum, QC, the Crown law officer for the States of Guernsey, pointing out that the law states that “Proportionality” has to be applied to laws and this had not been the case with “the draconian travel restrictions.”
In the UK, it could easily be argued that the advisers to the Prime Minister have not applied “proportionality” to their recommendations to put back ending lockdowns.
Mr Ford also supplied firm evidence that the travel restrictions were neither necessary or proportional.
He pointed out the immense physical and mental harm to Islanders and their families.
He said such restrictions had been catastrophic for local families who want to have their families visit them. He said the Island had been “hermetically sealed” for 15 months, and that any travel restrictions at all were not proportional to the current situation.
The authorities have not been helped by the fact they allowed a visit by the British & Irish Lions rugby coach, who was wined and dined with some of the CCA, and which effectively had travel and quarantine restrictions not applying. This was controversial with many locals seeing it as one law for the authorities, and another for them.
It is difficult to see how Ms Pullum can advise the politicians to do anything other than advise the Guernsey CCA to abandon their emergency powers, but the jury is out on that important decision.
Local campaigners are now considering sending key Guernsey officials legal warning letters regarding their individual and collective actions. The pressure is certainly building up on the authorities, a contrast with a few months ago, when there was very little visable opposition.
The situation in the neighbouring Island of Jersey is similar, and both have come under a lot of criticism for a new discriminatory covid-19 vaccines policy in respect of travel, which the UK rightly does not apply. There is likely to be legal action against the States of Jersey and Guernsey on this.
Joint interests on ending restrictions has seen more Channel Islanders working together to bring about a return of their freedoms.
Many in both Guernsey and Jersey are concerned about the poor publicity their Islands will get and the effect on their visitor economies if they do not end all travel restrictions immediately.
The campaigners argue that the restrictions have been reckless and are not proportionately related to medical risks which they say are proven to be minimal. This is a situation which needs resolving but it does need the politicians to change their approach, and that is not always easy in any jurisdiction! However, at least Guernsey is well ahead in terms of general lockdown freedoms, which the UK too should be granted from 21st.
One essential point is that the Prime Minister did promise the nation its freedoms on 21st June, and the criteria he set then has not fundamentally changed.
To delay freedoms would be a breach of the trust the nation has placed in the PM’s leadership.
It would be a grave mistake to delay the 21st freedom day for many reasons.
However, one key one is that a number of organisations and prominent individuals have said that they will be taking their freedoms back on 21st irrespective of what the government decides.
Already there are major protests planned, in particular on 21st June, dubbed “Freedom Day” outside Parliament, and another big march on 26th June in London, to echo the hundreds of thousands who attended the one which took place on 29th May.
The Prime Minister needs to decide who most merits his trust- the advisers who have consistently got it wrong- or the public who have given their trust to him ?
Anthony Webber
Political Commentator
Member of the States of Guernsey, 1991-2004
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