Conflict casualty figures are always used as a weapon in the information war that surrounds the actual fighting. Britain underplayed its civilian and military casualties, especially during the First World War, to prevent demoralising the population. More recently, trying to get to the root of military casualties on both sides of the war un Ukraine is hard. Both sides understandably wish to emphasise their successes and minimise their reporting of losses. But once the scale of deaths, purported to have reached 1000 a day at one point for Russia, is in the tens and possibly hundreds of thousands, do the actual numbers really matter?
In Gaza, it appears that reports of deaths may be greatly exaggerated by Hamas. This is also understandable, although probably unnecessary, given what the real scale of deaths is likely to be. Hamas will have every interest in making the Israelis look as evil as possible to attract world attention and attract food and water aid to the Gaza Strip.
According to Tablet magazine – a Jewish newspaper not to be confused with The Tablet which is a Roman Catholic newspaper – there is convincing statistical evidence that the deaths are probably about half of what has been reported. In particular, the deaths of children are exaggerated, and the statistical evidence lies in the lack of correlation between the deaths of women and the deaths of children. Normally, in situations like the bombing of Gaza, there is a high correlation between female deaths and the deaths of children, which is easily explained by the fact that they are usually co-located. The true figures for casualties in Gaza is estimated by the authors in Tablet is likely to be around 18,000. A second study, using a different methodology published in The Telegraph and another by the Washington Institute come to the same conclusion.
What a relief. Thank goodness only 18,000 people have been killed including innocent men, women and children and probably only a handful of Hamas fighters who seem to spend most of their time safely below ground. Truth matters, of course, but can we take any comfort from these figures? I doubt it.
I don’t take any more comfort from those figures than the fact that the initial death toll at the Israeli border on 7 October was exaggerated. It is a matter of record in Hansard as stated by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that the initial reports referred to ‘over 1,400 people murdered’ and worse still, they were murdered ‘one by one’. There is something particularly chilling about people capable of the systematic – and self-recorded – murder of innocent people but is it more acceptable to kill them by the hundred, cowering in their homes, starving and dehydrated?
The fact that the actual number killed on 7 October is reported officially in Israel to be 1139 neither makes the deaths at the border more acceptable. But nor do we hear much, or anything, about that figure being revised downwards, albeit only by 300, in the mainstream media. This still makes the ‘score’ 16 deaths in Gaza for every one at the border on 7 October. Assuming that Hamas are impossible to defeat, and that Israel are effectively recruiting by the hundred to the Islamic death cult, when will enough be enough?
Roger Watson is a retired academic nurse who lives in the UK.
He is currently engaged in a range of professional consultancies in the UK, Europe and China. He writes regularly for several outlets including The Daily Sceptic, The European Conservative, Country Squire Magazine and The New Conservative.
