How is the Labour Party set to do in the General Election?

Universally over the last few days, the polls are showing a closing in Conservative lead to under 10% points. However, this polling data only shows the national voting intentions. These polls do not account for the stockpiling of Labour votes in Cities such as London and Birmingham. As a result of the controversial first past the post voting system a lot of these votes will not fundamentally count.

Take David Lammy in Tottenham for example, Mr Lammy has a majority of 34,000 with over 80% of the popular vote. Whilst the Conservative’s obviously also hold a number of safe seats Labour hold considerably more with these city seats combined with Northern towns where the Conservative party have very little hope of victory. 

Once these stockpiled votes are taken into consideration it is likely that the Labour party are even further back than the polling data is currently showing. A more effective method of prediction is often the so-called ‘bell-weather’ constituency’s that tend to go with the elected government. One of these is Cleethorpes, which has gone with the government since its creation in 1997. Last week’s YouGov poll had a large Conservative gain of vote on top of its current 10,000 majority. 

In more worrying and certainly connected news for Labour, it is forecasted to lose the seat of Wrexham which has been Labour-held since 1935. The poll conducted by Survation is predicting a 20% drop for Labour to 29% with the Conservative’s way out in front on 44%. Whilst polling has been somewhat erratic in recent elections and referendums there is currently little sign of the Corbyn surge that occurred in 2017 which resulted in the hung Parliament. 

As polling day draws ever nearer UNN will continue to bring you the cutting edge electoral and polling data that the MSM either cannot or will not bring too you.