Is the Brexit Party failing to sway Labour Leave voters?

A poll conducted by YouGov today has provided some extremely interesting data. One of the reasons for the inaccuracies of polling in recent times has been attributed to the lack of understanding of the so-called ‘firmness’ of voting intentions. This has often been when a party or figure has had support, but it has not been conclusive and has changed dependant on events. This poll shows us that those currently intending to vote Conservative vote is the ‘firmest’ with seven out of ten ruling out a changing their minds in the YouGov poll. 

The key variable and unknown in this general election are the performances and potential disruption of the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the Liberal Democrats. Prior to the election thy were widely expected to clip off voters from each end of the Leave/Remain and Conservative/Labour spectrum. However, whilst as previously stated the Conservative vote is ‘firmer’ so is Labour’s with over 6 in 10 of those backing Labour are ruling out a change of heart. In addition to this, Labour will take positives from the fact that only 5 in 10 of currently intentioned Lib Dem voters are set in stone.

The narrative coming from Nigel Farage and the Brexit party voters is that they are going to attack Labour leave voters. However, the data does not believe this is going particularly well. The poll shows us that 49% of these Labour leaders will or might vote for another party, while 34% say they “definitely won’t” vote for Labour. However, worryingly for Farage Four in ten 42% say they will or might vote for the Conservatives compared with only 29% who say they will or could vote Brexit Party. As UNN’s Oliver Down always does he has emailed the Brexit Party media office with this article and is awaiting a response or comment on this.