By James De Burghe:
In the need of providing figures that are accurate and which reflect the true picture of Russian casualties this report if broken down to a year by year narrative.
2022
This is by far the most difficult year for casualty assessment.
From January of that year the forces fighting the Ukraine army and para military groups consisted of the following organisations
The Lugansk peoples militia around 27,000 strong
The Donetsk peoples Militia around 31,000 strong
The Crimean volunteer Legion around 20,000 strong
6 independent volunteer battalions around 2000 strong
From February 22nd 2022 a Russian regular army force of 90,000 men entered the conflict.
The Russian force consisted mainly of Artillery, Rocket, and armoured forces. Along with their logistics support elements. A further ground assault unit consisting of ground attack aircraft and helicopters was added to the initial group within days, taking the Russian numbers up to 110,000
In early March 2022 a secondary Russian for consisting of Infantry, armour and artillery invaded the Kiev Region of Ukraine this force numbered 25,000 men.
In July the Wagner private military company sent 25,000 men as infantry support to the Donbas Militias.
Throughout 2022 there was no unified method of casualty reporting used by these groups.
The Russian regular army had an efficient system that provided daily, weekly and monthly casualty statistics to the Russian MOD. The two Donbas militias reported casualties daily to their respective governments. The remainder issued no casualty reports at all apart from personalised notification to the next of kin of wounded or killed soldiers.
The two Donbas republics began a conscription scheme that provided replacements for their battle field casualties.
Therefore apart from the Russian regular army is was extremely difficult to assess losses incurred by the forces opposing Ukraine.
We know from the monthly reports issued by the Russian MOD to other ministries that Russian losses (killed, maimed, missing in action) were comparatively light, a total of 7423 men (+/- 1.5%)
Subsequent research demonstrated that the Wagner group lost 4911 men (+/- 3%)
The two Donbas militias lost 9208 men (+/- 5%)
The Crimean Volunteers lost 6867 men (+/- 10%)
Other volunteer groups lost around 450 men. (+/- 10%)
The High variance in the last two groups reflect the fact that they had maintained no regular written records of casualties and researchers had to rely on hearsay of surviving members to accurately assess real losses.
The losses reflect the fact that apart from the Wagner group Russian forces in the Donbass region acted mainly as support to local forces and the main infantry losses fell on the militias and volunteer forces. Both in the Kharkov region and the Kherson region the militias and volunteers had over extended their lines beyond Russia’s ability to support them and the painful decision had to be taken to withdraw in both areas to defensible lines. Factions also began to develop with units of the Lughansk Militia refusing to fight in the Donetsk area. All of these problems relate to the high infantry losses of late 2022.
2023
The events of 2022 convinced the Russian Government that they needed to reinforce the Russian contingent in Ukraine and that they needed to take charge of both the strategic and tactical planning of the conflict.
After consultation with the LPR and DPR governments is was agreed that their militias would come under Russian control and that Russia would train and arm them.
With immediate effect 100,000 additional Russian troops were sent into the Donbass. A strong contingent of army engineers and sappers took on the task of ringing the forward positions with a continuos in depth defence line designed to withstand heavy Ukraine counter attacks. A second large contingent from the Russian medical corps went forward and set up emergency first aid posts, field hospitals and mobile medical teams to ensure that battle casualties were never more than ten minutes from an aid station. For the first time Russian infantry units were dispersed alongside the militias.
Within Russia 300,000 reservists were called up and began exhaustive training to be ready to take the line by April 2023.
The Wagner group reinforced with convicts was now 70,000 men strong and took up some of the most dangerous and exposed positions on the Donbas front line.
From January to March the fighting was principally to solidify the front line and to isolate Ukraine fortresses close to the front line.
The Wagner group had been steadily advancing on the Ukraine fortress town of Bakhmut whilst regular Russian infantry and marines advanced to protect their flanks. The Wagner Group surround Bakhmut and prepared for a direct assault on the town. At the end of march Wagner launched a direct storm assault on Bakhmut and after four weeks of intensive fighting took the town. However they suffered the loss of 25,000 men in the process. Though Ukraine losses were very high as they tried to hold the town and reinforce their units there the Russian high command was appalled at the Wagner groups loss figures and claimed that the same objective could have been achieved with far fewer losses.
June saw Ukraine launch its much vaunted summer offensive. It was an instant failure with Ukraine taking very heavy casualties in the outer ring of the Russian defences. Trapped in minefields, pummelled by artillery, Rockets , barometric weapons, and air attacks the Ukraine forces too disastrous losses. Rarely did the Ukraine attacks come close to the Russian manned defence lines and thus Russian casualties were very light in comparison. This situation carried on till December 2023 with Ukraine continuing to lose heavy numbers of men in fruitless attacks on the Russian defence lines
At the Year end Russian losses for the year (including the Wagner Group) stood at 39,886 men killed, maimed or missing in action.
2024
This year saw a subtle change in Russian tactics, the level of volunteers pouring into the Russian army in 2023 allowed Russian to gradually expand its forces in the Donbass to around 700,000 men. In addition new weapons such a precision glide bombs and gps guided artillery shells allowed Russia to carry out precision attacks on the entire logistical support of the Ukraine front line. Followed by a slow but steady advance along the central portion of the Donbass front line by mid year several more Ukraine fortresses had fallen to the Russians and the entire Ukraine defence lines were compromised. Ukraine launched a fruitless attacks on Russia’s Kursk region which inflicted casualties on the border guards and unarmed Russian civil defence forces but which ultimately led to Ukraine losses of 30,000 men and hundreds of armoured vehicles, rocket launchers and mobile artillery as the Russian surrounded the Ukrainian forces with 200,000 men. The advance in the south continued relentlessly and at the time of writing this narrative Ukraine has suffered critical losses in manpower and weaponry.
To date Russian losses in 2024 amount to 95,895 men killed maimed or missing in action. Balance this against Ukraine losses of 540,165 men so far in 2024.
Therefore Russian and allied losses to date in this conflict are summarised
Russian military forces ` 143,204
Allies 21,436
Grand total 164,640 +/- 5%
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