The Indian variant of Coronavirus may not be as transmissible as first thought with the recent surge in cases partly driven by the “founder effect”, scientists have said.
Cases in India are rapidly declining, leading some experts to suggest the recent spike in cases is being driven by the founder effect, which occurs when a small number of people infect a larger number than normal, sparking a change in the dominant strain.
In the United Kingdom’s case, the effect could have been triggered by small numbers of infected people racing to return from India after the Government imposed new travel restrictions, and then passing it on to large, multi-generational households.
Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: “How can it be the case that it is 40 per cent more transmissible when the numbers are falling off at the speed they are in India?
“We could be looking at a founder effect and where you’ve got a small number of people having a bigger impact.
“India is actually looking more like the natural curve which happens in winter and has a high drop-off, as opposed to flattening the curve.”
At a press conference from Downing Street on Wednesday evening, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, said that the extra transmissibility could be as low as ‘just a few per cent’ saying the government was expecting the date to be more clear next week.
“We have a credible range which goes from a few per cent through to 50 per cent more transmissible,
“I think most people feel it’s going to be in the middle but it is just too early.” he said.
The Prime Minister told MPs on Wednesday: “We’ve looked at the data again this morning and I can tell the House we have increasing confidence that vaccines are effective against all variants, including the Indian variant.”
He later told 1922 Committee MPs: “We can see nothing to suggest that we have to deviate from the road map.”
Dr Mike Tildesley, associate professor at the University of Warwick, said: “The relaxations on May 17 are extremely important for people’s mental health and well being after a lengthy period with severe restrictions in place, but the emergence of the new Indian variant serves as a reminder that we need to continue to ease carefully out of lockdown and continue with the vaccination campaign in order to minimise the risk of a resurgence occurring over the coming weeks.”
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