Who is Professor Neil Ferguson and why were the British Government so quick to follow his plan?

Who is Professor Neil Ferguson?

Dr Neil Ferguson is acting director of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC), which is based at Imperial College in London. According to Ferguson’s biography, much of his work is applied to informing disease control policy-making by public and global health institutions.

The professor who derailed Johnson’s Covid-19 herd immunity strategy is no stranger to controversy and is described as having a “patchy” record of modelling pandemics which could have led to hasty Ministerial decisions. 

Ferguson was instrumental in the modelling of the Blair Government’s response to Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in 2001, which Professor Thrushfield a Veterinary Epidemiologist described as seriously flawed and highlighted the limitations of Ferguson’s mathematical modelling method.  Ferguson was [reportedly] sacked by DEFRA late on during the epidemic, but the damage had been done! 

Ferguson’s model imposed a “new normal” upon Britain’s farming community.  

An estimated 12m animals were slaughtered, the farming community was devastated by suicides and bankruptcies that irretrievably altered the landscape of British agriculture – forcing healthy smallholdings into agri-corporate mergers and empowering the EU central governance in the agricultural sector.  

Ferguson was awarded an OBE for his work during FMD 2001.

Extract from a Private Eye Report:

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would die from “mad cow disease”, increasing to 150,000 if the epidemic expanded to include sheep. The reality is: Since 1990, 178 people in the United Kingdom have died from vCJD, according to the National CJD Research & Surveillance Unit at the University of Edinburgh. (2017)

In 2005, Ferguson claimed that up to 200 million people would be killed by bird-flu or H5N1.  By early 2006, the WHO had only linked 78 deaths to the virus, out of 147 reported cases.

In 2009, Ferguson and his team at Imperial College advised the Government that swine flu or H1N1 would probably kill 65,000 people in the UK. In the end, swine flu claimed the lives of 457 people in the UK.

Now, in 2020, Ferguson and Imperial College have released a report which claims that half a million Britons and 2.2 million Americans may be killed by Covid–19. The report has still not been peer-reviewed; despite this and Ferguson’s glaring record of mathematical sensationalism, the British Government has adopted the devastating socio-economic lockdown that Ferguson has proposed.

Why was the British Government so quick to follow Ferguson’s plan given his historic flawed modelling record?

Analysis

I have just two questions I would ask of Boris Johnson’s Government:- 

Q: Why were you so quick to follow Professor Ferguson’s plan?

Q: How many times does an “expert” have to be wrong to lose that title?

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/pictures/special_reports/not-the-foot-and-mouth.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164121/Professor-predicted-500-000-Britons-die-coronavirus-accused-having-patchy-record.html

https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/who-controls-british-government-response-covid19-part-one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb9iaDoXJF8

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