Will the by election results mean that Rishi Sunak’s days are numbered?

By Anthony Webber

Independent Political Commentator

 

Since the last General Election in November 2019, there have been 19 by-elections.

It has not been good news for the Conservative government.

They have lost 8 seats , held 3 and gained one.

Labour have lost one seat, gained 5 and held 5.

Liberal Democrats have had have no held seats to lose, and have gained 4.

The SNP have held one seat and lost one.

The trend has been a worsening one for the Conservative government.

It has led to an increasing sense of demoralisation amongst Conservative MP’s and party supporters.

What can they do?

Some have said they must have tax cuts.

The reality is that because of their covid, net zero, Ukraine and now Middle Eastern policies, they cannot afford that option.

Others have said that they must return to “traditional values,” but how is that possible when most Conservative MP’s do not support them?

The recent Conservative party conference should have been an opportunity for revival, but it was almost dull with nothing really new and inspiring to offer the party faithful.

The party is a broad church one, but the consensus is so wide and full of yes people careerists, that there is a lacking what the modern Conservative party stands for.

That is the crux of the matter, apart from presenting themselves as a least bad option than Labour, the impression is that they have nothing new to offer.

This was confirmed by a 23.9% swing from Conservative to Labour at Tamworth and a 20.5% swing from Conservative to Labour at Mid Beds.

To be brutally frank, the Conservative party started losing momentum under Theresa May and then lost a marvellous opportunity for restoration with Boris Johnson who let them down on many issues, including Brexit, Covid, Net Zero and Ukraine. The resulting leadership contest was uninspiring, with the winner Liz Truss just not up to the job, and then her successor Rishi Sunak failing to present a coherent strategy which would unite the party and the country.

As I predicted with the past three Conservative Prime Ministers, I also believe that another leader will depart and that there will be a new head of the party for the next General Election. The Conservative have nothing to lose by appointing a new dynamic younger leader from amongst their MP’s.

 

With these two recent by -elections, the old mainstream parties relied on the old mainstream local and national media to prop them up.

This media has changed over the last ten or twenty years in that global corporations now control the vast majority of it. Globalists also manage to achieve massive control of the supposedly neutral public sector media such as the BBC and the Channel 4 network. They even decide the news policies of local media. We do not have a free media anymore!

These by-elections were thus presented by this media as a contest between the Conservative and Labour party teams.

If the Liberal Democrats had had any chance of winning either of them, they would have been promoted more, as they were in the by-elections they won before these.

We must forget about what should happen- giving each candidate equal opportunity to the others! That is something we used to have and now have to fight to get back!

So psychologically, the disenchanted voter is presented with the impression that the choice is between the government candidate and the “leading” opposing contender.

They go along with that choice because they want the party in government to get the message that they are dissatisfied and want change.

Do they get a real change, that is the question?

At least with these two by-elections the winning Labour candidates were young and aspiring.

It is possible to envisage Tamworth victor Sarah Edwards, as a future Labour party leader. As for the Conservative candidates, they were just not impressive, and the party needs to take better care with their candidate selection in future.

The old mainstream parties take advantage of the outdated First Past the Post electoral system, which enables them to take it in turns to govern the country.

This system does not inspire confidence in the electorate and their general disillusionment with both the government and opposition was shown by the low turnouts in these by-elections:

Tamworth-  35.87%, meaning 25,586 people voted out of 71,321

Mid-Beds -43.98%, meaning 40,720 voted out of 92,578.

(Please note that there are reasons for the higher turnout in Mid Beds, the main one being more candidates, 13, as opposed to 9 in Tamworth)

Therefore, both winning candidates, with only 11,719 and 13,872 votes respectively, hardly had endorsements from the electorates.

But that is our system!

If the fact that 8 million eligible people are estimated as having not signed up on the electoral roll across the UK, that means about another 13,500 per constituency are not able to vote or to be represented.

The answer has to be to allow the electorate to vote for candidates in order or preference ( STV voting system), which would encourage people to believe their votes would not be wasted.

The lack of impartiality of the media and the use of an unfair voting system both don’t help voters to decide to vote for new parties or Independents.

The two by-elections saw 88.3% vote for the top three parties in Mid-beds`, with the other ten candidates sharing 11.7% votes.

With Tamworth, 86.5% went to the top two parties with the other 7 candidates sharing 12.5% of the votes.

The Libdems received more media support in Mid-Beds which partly explains their better result.

However, the low results of the other candidates can be explained by other factors too.

The so-called patriotic right had three candidates and it could be argued that that choice split the vote.

However, to their credit all those candidates responded to the questions sent to them.

They also received more votes than the Green, Libdem and other minor candidates who did not respond.

As for the Mid-Beds candidates, the Green and Reform candidates responded to the questions, as did three others, and broadly the bottom candidates were those who did not respond to the questionnaire.

The candidates of both Labour and Conservative parties did not respond to the questionnaire as their party managers tell them not to.

This does not help the democratic process.

However, the Reform UK party’s Ian Cooper achieved 5.4% and saved their deposit in Tamworth which they will be pleased with.

The sad fact is though that Reform UK is not achieving the votes it needs to achieve at by-elections to convince the public to vote for them at the next General Election.

Going back to UKIP’s heyday, they even won two by-elections and did well in others, so those are the levels of votes which need to be aspired to.

In the case of Reform UK, it is not seen as offering a broad base of policies and is seen as an alternative conservative party.

In the case of parties such as UKIP, Heritage and English Democrats, better promotional literature for the electorate, better resources and better organisation are key.

In the case of Britain First at Tamworth their candidate Ashlea Simon was clearly a presentable get out there and doer, and that often helps.

In Mid Beds, the Independent Councillor Gareth Mackey, achieved a credible 4.6%, but the impression given was of a man who really missed out on a golden opportunity.

He did not respond to the questions and just did not present his campaign in a way which could have seen him take advantage of voter disillusionment.

Overall, he took votes away from the Conservatives, which would have been enough for them to win.

Some media have claimed that Reform UK cost the Tories victory in both seats, but this is a simplification.

They could have taken some Labour votes too.

Reform UK has the same problem as UKIP in that some of their candidates take a different view to their official party views on Ukraine and Israel/Palestine.

These are too major as issues, where it would help them if they offered the voter an alternative set of foreign policies to those of the government/Opposition.

It seems that in France they have found a way forward in achieving electoral success for alternative thinking, and their National Rally party has a balance of policies which have found favour with a cross section of their public. Unless an example like that is followed, the chances of current alternative parties getting anywhere in UK politics seem remote.

Efforts are still going on behind the scenes to improve electoral prospects so the jury is out on that one.

As for candidates, it is appalling for our democracy that so many of them have such a poor grasp of foreign affairs and/or have been taken in by the media’s presentation of such issues. We really need more questioning candidates who are not afraid of healthy democratic debate.

Please see below the by-election results for Tamworth and Mid Beds:

2023 Tamworth by-election

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2023 Tamworth by-election[30]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Sarah Edwards	11,719	45.8	+22.1
	Conservative	Andrew Cooper	10,403	40.7	–25.6
	Reform UK	Ian Cooper	1,373	5.4	New
	Britain First	Ashlea Simon	580	2.3	New
	UKIP	Robert Bilcliff	436	1.7	–0.1
	Green	Sue Howarth	417	1.6	–0.4
	Liberal Democrats	Sunny Virk	417	1.6	–3.7
	Monster Raving Loony	Howling Laud Hope	155	0.6	New
	No description	Peter Longman	86	0.3	New
Majority			1,316	5.1	N/A
Turnout			25,586	35.9	–28.4
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	+23.9

A similar substantial swing, resulting in a Labour gain from the Conservatives, was seen in the concurrent Mid Bedfordshire by-election. Psephologist John Curtice determined these results to be “one of worst nights any government has endured”.^[31]

Parties to the right of the Conservatives (Reform UK, Britain First and UKIP) received a total combined vote of 9.4%.^[32]

Mid-Beds by-election:

2023 Mid Bedfordshire by-election[46]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Alistair Strathern	13,872	34.1	+12.4
	Conservative	Festus Akinbusoye	12,680	31.1	–28.7
	Liberal Democrats	Emma Holland-Lindsay	9,420	23.1	+10.5
	Independent	Gareth Mackey	1,865	4.6	New
	Reform UK	Dave Holland	1,487	3.7	New
	Green	Cade Sibley	732	1.8	–2.0
	Monster Raving Loony	Ann Kelly	249	0.6	–0.2
	English Democrat	Antonio Vitiello	107	0.3	New
	CPA	Sid Cordle	101	0.2	New
	True & Fair Party	Alan Victor	93	0.2	New
	Heritage	Alberto Thomas	63	0.2	New
	No description	Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India	27	0.1	New
	Mainstream	Chris Rooney	24	0.1	New
Majority			1,192	3.0	N/A
Turnout			40,720	44.1	–29.6
	Labour gain from Conservative		Swing	+20.5

A similar substantial swing, resulting in a Labour gain from the Conservatives, was seen in the concurrent Tamworth by-election. Psephologist John Curtice determined these results to be ”one of worst nights any government has endured”.^[47]