Opinion: How Will Brexit Affect Scotland’s Demographic Crisis?

Lisa Jane Baker is a content writer for the Immigration Advice Service, an organisation of immigration lawyers

Brexit has added a new layer of complexity to the tumultuous relationship between Scotland and England. With Scotland voting decisively to remain in the European Union, its forced removal simply reaffirms the idea that its fate is determined by those south of the border. The principle of this alone will prompt resentment- the views of the Scottish electorate counting for nothing purely because leaving the EU is favoured by those in England and Wales. But Brexit will also pose a number of practical challenges for Scotland- its demographic situation means that immigration is necessary to avoid labour shortages. With EU migration set to drop dramatically once the transition period ends, it is imperative that Scotland is given the ability to craft its own immigration policy. 

As seen throughout the Western world, populations are ageing rapidly. Scotland’s natural population growth is negative- the number of deaths currently outweigh the number of births. Unfortunately, this trend shows no signs of reversing- deaths are expected to exceed births in each of the next twenty years, with 10,000 more deaths than births expected by 2041. A shortage of births means that Scotland’s population is becoming increasingly top-heavy, with a growing number of pension-age citizens and a dwindling number of younger and working-age citizens. This poses an economic challenge, as there are simply not enough people to meet the demands of the labour market. 

As more elderly people begin to rely on the health and social care sector, it is crucial there are enough working-age employees to fulfil the needs of these essential services. The pressures on- and the sustainability of- these public services and tax revenue will increase without more working-age people. Using migration to grow the population is essential for Scotland in helping to mitigate demographic change. All of Scotland’s population growth in the next 25 years is projected to come from migration. The rest of the UK benefits from natural change contributing significantly to its population growth; Scotland has no such luxury in this area.

Due in no small part to positive inward migration, the labour market is functioning well in its current situation- employment and unemployment rates are currently at near record levels. The lower age profile of migrants has allowed Scotland to counteract its demographic pressures- 80% of migrants in Scotland are of working-age, compared to 65% of the Scottish population as a whole. Free movement has enabled Scotland to mask the problem due to the ease with which EU nationals can take up work in the UK. Yet when free movement comes to an end, EU citizens will be subject to the same immigration restrictions as all other foreign nationals. 7% of Scotland’s employment comprises foreign nationals, 71% of whom are from the EU. With this in mind, there are growing calls for control over immigration policy to be devolved- it is only then that Scotland will be able to mitigate Brexit’s impact. 

The government’s new points-based system will make it immensely more difficult for Scotland to attract the migrants it needs. Replacing the Tier 2 visa route, the new system requires all overseas nationals to score a total of 70 points and earn a minimum of £25,600 per year. Whilst ‘points-based’ implies that weaknesses in one area can be offset by strengths in another, the need for a job offer from a sponsored employer is still just as essential. In sectors such as social care, where many roles are both low-skilled and low-paid, the impact of these changes will prove disastrous. 

The new rules will hit the rural areas and islands even harder; they are particularly vulnerable to a decline in population due to having lower paid jobs and unattractive living conditions. It will be harder to attract incomers to these areas because the jobs on offer are unlikely to meet the new salary threshold. The rules fail to address the differing economic needs in different parts of the UK. As Scotland is demonstrating, a ‘one cap fits all’ approach to immigration is the opposite of what is needed. 

For this reason, the SNP-led government is campaigning for more of a say in immigration policy. As stated by the Scottish Parliament:

“It is essential to our economic prospects and our demographic sustainability that Scotland continues to attract the level and nature of migration it needs.”

With relations between Holyrood and Westminster already strained prior to the EU referendum, continuing to prevent Scotland from crafting its own policy will likely increase support for independence. Scotland has already attempted to compromise and adapt to the changes by proposing a ‘Scottish Visa’. However, with the proposals steadfastly vetoed by Westminster, the pending demographic crisis shows no signs of being avoided. 

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon believes that the devolution of immigration powers in the form of a Scottish Visa would:

“Allow Scotland to attract and retain people with the skills and attributes we need for our communities and economy to flourish.”

Is the First Minister speaking on behalf of the entire country? Although it appears Scotland is seen as welcoming, the population is not free from prejudice, and not generally supportive of maintaining, or increasing, current levels of immigration. 72% of Scots told a 2013 British Social Attitudes Survey they wanted immigration cut. Additionally, 63% in a 2017 poll told the British Future Fund that they wanted to cut the number of low-skilled EU migrants. A social integration policy would be paramount in not only enabling the resident population to understand the enormity of the future challenges without the inward migration, but also in encouraging migrants to stay in Scotland. 

Lisa Jane Baker is a content writer for the Immigration Advice Service, an organisation of immigration lawyers.