Britain leaves the EU on Friday, what does the future look like for the EU. The European Parliament Elections only last year showed the stark reality of politics right across Europe. The bloc is more divided than ever. Obviously, you wouldn’t think that was the case if you spoke to anyone in Brussels, they will tell you it is business as usual. These divisions within the EU run at all levels and axes of European politics. The division between East and West (No Eastern European has been given a top job in the European Parliament or Commission during this round of selection) , the division between Eurozone and non-eurozone, between left and right, and the division between pro-integration and scepticism.

It is difficult to interpret the last European elections in any other way than having returned the strongest showing in history for many right-wing anti-EU and populist political parties. Matteo Salvini took a third of seats in Italy and Marine le Pen took a quarter of the vote share in France. Meanwhile traditional conservative and centre-right parties suffered. 2020 poses several great existential problems for the European Union, there is an underlying disunity between the Member States and within the various political factions in the European Parliament that means the adequate solutions are unlikely to be found.

A key change that will shape the direction of Europe is, of course, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union on the 31st of January. Not only will it mean that one of Europe’s big three nations will be ending its membership of the Union, but it will also mean a shift in the power dynamics at play in Brussels.

The United Kingdom was long been the balancing act in the European Council, standing up against Germany and France over many issues there will now be a power vacuum. The Visegrad 4 countries (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic) have made some power plays inside and outside of the Council chamber in a bid to fill that void. However, the reality is that none of these actors currently have the political clout to pull off the role that the UK once played.

The other event on the minds of the Brussels elite is the so called “Conference on the Future of Europe”. However, unlike pretty much every other public consultation, the conclusions have already been decided before anyone outside of the EU institutions has had a chance to voice an opinion. The great debate is to be chaired by former Belgian Prime Minister and arch-federalist Guy Verhofstadt. Furthermore, the “working group” in the European Parliament connected to this project also shows the EU’s bias towards Western Europe as all but one member of the committee is from Western Europe and four of the members are German.

The European Union remains blind and deaf to the concerns of those outside of the Brussels bubble. Whilst it would be ludicrous to suggest that all that the EU does is bad, programmes such as Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe are more successful and popular than ever before, the growing disconnect between the EU leadership and EU citizens can only lead to further growth of populism and isolationism.

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