Modelling of the coronavirus epidemic by researchers at the Imperial College, London gave rise to a report by Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. The report forecast an apocalyptic prediction that coronavirus could kill 500,000 Britons if nothing was done, this was enough to convince both the Trump administration and Boris Johnson Government to reverse their previous strategies and call for extreme measures in order to “flatten the curve” of the coronavirus epidemic.
The Imperial College London modelling then became the basis for both administrations COVID-19 Response Plans which resulted in a “lockdown” of citizens, removing swathes of ancient rights and civil liberties at the stroke of a pen and putting previously healthy economies onto life support.
It is now emerging that the Imperial College London model is woefully inadequate. It does not model increased use of personal protective equipment such as face masks.
It also fails to model medical interventions that have shown promise in reducing fatalities such as chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and intravenous L ascorbic acid.
And most importantly of all the Imperial College Report does not take into account the long term aftershocks from the prolonged lockdown set to crash economies – the “deaths of despair” from a sharp rise in unemployment that will be triggered by putting sheltering in place for weeks, months, or even years (the “U.S. Government COVID-19 Response Plan” estimates that the “pandemic will last 18 months or longer”).
“the relationship between unemployment and all-cause mortality found that unemployment increased the risk of dying by 63%.”
Harvey Brenner (previously of Johns Hopkins University) now Professor in the Global Health Division of the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at Yale School of Medicine on behalf of the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress in the mid 1970s found that:-
…”a 1% increase in the unemployment rate sustained over a period of 6 years has been associated (during the past three decades) with increases of 36,887 total deaths, including 20,240 cardiovascular deaths, 920 suicides, 648 homicides, 495 deaths from cirrhosis of the liver, 4,227 state mental hospital admissions, and 3,340 state prison admissions.”
Employment is the essential element of social status, it establishes a person as a contributing member of society and also has very important implications for self-esteem”. When this is removed people become susceptible to depression and many other illnesses that increase mortality.
The Rishi Sunak bailout package in the UK will no doubt see megabucks CEOs line up cap in hand. The loans available to struggling self-employed/small/medium businessmen and women will no doubt be warmly welcomed by the banks who badly needed the stimulus, but what interest rate will they charge despite a base rate of 0.25% and how many will actually qualify given the economic uncertainty?
The Government guarantee of 80% of the loan, sounds good, but fail to pay and it will be the 20% they come for, houses and businesses put at risk for a temporary cash flow – there will without doubt be major economic and human casualties as a result of the actions taken on the predictions of the Imperial College Report.
“deaths of despair from crashing the economy via lockdowns will significantly add to the final death toll and may end up surpassing fatalities from the virus itself.”
Economic growth is the single most important factor relating to length of life and once the economy slows to a standstill, it takes years to bring it back up to full speed again.
3 scenarios following the Brenner model, which reflect the estimated impact of an increase in unemployment over a 5 year period.
Low-range. If the unemployment rate increases by 5 points as a result of the various lockdowns, then 294,170 additional lives will be lost.
Mid-range. If the unemployment rate increases by 16.5 points then 970,761 additional lives will be lost.
Upper-range. And if the unemployment rate increases 10-fold — (which is already being seen in several states in the US) — then 1,853,271 lives will be lost to deaths of despair from lock down.
A wide range of authors are now raising questions about the advisability of widespread lockdowns of indeterminate length
Two-thirds of coronavirus victims may have died this year anyway, government adviser states.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee via video link that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although it may turn out to be a lot less.
Appearing via videolink Professor Ferguson said: “We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in this epidemic, or what proportion of people who died WITH covid would have died anyway as two-thirds are likely to be old and seriously ill people with underlying health complications.”
Analysis
It is my belief that the Imperial College’s apocalyptic report (which it seems they are now rowing back from) followed by the knee jerk reaction of politicians will with the passing of time and full scrutiny be found to be catastrophic errors of judgement, based on flawed modelling, a lack of timely reasoned judgement and extreme pressure from the “International Community”.
One thing is certain, when the dust settles we MUST shine a light on who really governs the West and shapes its policymaking – starting with the supremely powerful Intergovernmental Organisations such as – the UN, the World Health Organisation and their vast network of NGOs and pressure groups who are increasingly converting international policy into national laws and regulation.
We also have to take to task the mainstream media and national press who have behaved in a wholly irresponsible manner ramping up the fear, pumping out sensationalised stories 24/7 in order to stay relevant – this has to stop – “with great power comes great responsibility”.
The fall out and repercussions from the lockdown have yet to fully materialise but when they do we must ensure that heads roll!
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/will-deaths-of-despair-outpace-deaths-from-coronavirus/
https://www.fortisestveritas.co.uk/world-health-organisation-but-are-they-any-good-on-health/
UNN is a truly alternative news organisation delivering live shows, articles, outside broadcasts and so much more! We desperately need your support to continue each month and you can support our work by Clicking Here Now and SUBSCRIBING to show your support for Real News!
I wrote my first article for Unity News Network on 30th December 2019, and I have been writing ever since – my library is now well in excess of 200 articles.
Alternative media is essential in these times of unprecedented censorship and mainstream bias, which has ramped up exponentially during the past 2 years. The overton window of “acceptable opinion” is growing every narrower.
Having a citizen’s log, cataloguing the twists and turns of life during these turbulent times is essential.
Thank you Unity News Network for allowing me a voice on your platform.
